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Prime minister Corbyn? The prospect for client portfolios

  • Learn what a hard-left government in power might look like.
  • Understand what impact Labour's manifesto might have on the economy and investments if they were in power.
  • Understand any similarities Mr Corbyn's policies have with the Conservative Budget and the impact John McDonnell might have as future chancellor.
CPD
Approx.30min

While only the top 5 per cent of earners will experience higher personal income tax rates, higher corporation tax could impact the income of all households if hiring and spending plans fall in response.

So either Mr Corbyn’s “people’s champion” persona is just for show, or he has deliberately chosen to omit a key policy plank from a costed manifesto.

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For better or worse?

Secondly – and maybe more importantly, given how Mr Mitterrand’s government was saved by a centrist finance minister – many business leaders fear the influence of the shadow chancellor.

John McDonnell is a self-declared Marxist. Unfortunately for analysts, judging just how deep Mr McDonnell’s Marxism really runs and how exactly he intends to turn the teachings of Das Kapital into policy is extremely difficult.

We tracked down a copy of his 2007 pamphlet, Another world is possible: a manifesto for 21st century socialism, in the British Library, expecting to find a cache of salacious quotes. They’re difficult to find.

It is a rather bland, if a little pious, stroll through the familiar arguments of latter day social democracy – the leftmost arguments, sure, but rarely radically so. He never defines what he means by capitalism or the market and seems to use them synonymously with corporate short-termism, which the economy would certainly benefit from eradicating.

The absence of any real policy is remarkable for a text pertaining to be a manifesto. It is vapid, not violent.

You may believe that the Labour manifesto is a Trojan Horse that will usher in widespread nationalisation, the state-directed allocation of capital and the undoing of economic liberalism.

But you could just as easily dismiss Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell’s stump rhetoric as just a half-baked attempt at progressivism by two left-leaning throwbacks, in which case it won’t be nearly as bad as some think.

There’s even the chance that, through the party’s economic stimulus, it could turn out for the better. 

Edward Smith is head of asset allocation research at Rathbones

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. What impact does Mr Smith say past left-leaning centrist governments have had on share markets or bond yields?

  2. Five weeks after Francois Mitterrand was elected in France, how much had the French index fallen by relative to global equities?

  3. Which of the policies in Labour's manifesto does Mr Smith describe as "quite radical"

  4. Under a Corbyn-led government, Oxford Economics forecasts national debt would be around what percentage of GDP higher by 2020?

  5. Even if tax shortfalls from Labour’s plan are made up with higher borrowing, it is difficult to envisage the total debt ratio approaching anything like that of which two countries, according to Mr Smith?

  6. Mr Smith makes this statement about the Labour manifesto: "Most strikingly, most of the heavy cuts to working-age benefits proposed by successive Conservative Budgets are kept in place." True or false?

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  • Learn what a hard-left government in power might look like.
  • Understand what impact Labour's manifesto might have on the economy and investments if they were in power.
  • Understand any similarities Mr Corbyn's policies have with the Conservative Budget and the impact John McDonnell might have as future chancellor.

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